Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Hunter HenryReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Giants vs. Patriots
Right now, Hunter Henry’s receiving yards prop is set at 30.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 30.5 (-115) after it opened @ 27.5 (-120).
Pros
- Our trusted projections expect the Patriots offense to be the 2nd-fastest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 26.19 seconds per snap.
- The leading projections forecast Hunter Henry to accrue 4.5 targets in this game, on balance, putting him in the 80th percentile among TEs.
- After totaling 28.0 air yards per game last year, Hunter Henry has been rising this year, currently boasting 43.0 per game.
- With a RATE1-RATE2 point jump in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that measures high-value offensive usage) from last year to this one, Hunter Henry has been more prominently used in his team’s passing offense.
- This year, the poor New York Giants defense has yielded the most yards-after-the-catch in the league to opposing tight ends: a staggering 6.63 YAC.
Cons
- With a 4.5-point advantage, the Patriots are favored in this week’s game, implying more of a reliance on running than their usual game plan.
- Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the New England Patriots to pass on 53.8% of their downs: the 7th-lowest rate on the slate this week.
- When talking about pass protection (and the ramifications it has on all air attack metrics), the offensive line of the New England Patriots ranks as the 10th-worst in the league this year.
- Hunter Henry’s sure-handedness have diminished this year, with his Adjusted Catch% shrinking from 72.5% to 65.9%.
- The Giants pass defense has given up the lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (62.3%) vs. TEs this year (62.3%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
29
Receiving Yards
29
Receiving Yards
