Week 12 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Hunter Henry from EV Insight

Hunter HenryReceiving Yards

Right now, Hunter Henry’s receiving yards prop is set at 30.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the OVER up to 30.5 (-115) after it opened @ 27.5 (-120).

Pros

Our trusted projections expect the Patriots offense to be the 2nd-fastest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 26.19 seconds per snap.
The leading projections forecast Hunter Henry to accrue 4.5 targets in this game, on balance, putting him in the 80th percentile among TEs.
After totaling 28.0 air yards per game last year, Hunter Henry has been rising this year, currently boasting 43.0 per game.
With a RATE1-RATE2 point jump in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that measures high-value offensive usage) from last year to this one, Hunter Henry has been more prominently used in his team’s passing offense.
This year, the poor New York Giants defense has yielded the most yards-after-the-catch in the league to opposing tight ends: a staggering 6.63 YAC.

Cons

With a 4.5-point advantage, the Patriots are favored in this week’s game, implying more of a reliance on running than their usual game plan.
Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the New England Patriots to pass on 53.8% of their downs: the 7th-lowest rate on the slate this week.
When talking about pass protection (and the ramifications it has on all air attack metrics), the offensive line of the New England Patriots ranks as the 10th-worst in the league this year.
Hunter Henry’s sure-handedness have diminished this year, with his Adjusted Catch% shrinking from 72.5% to 65.9%.
The Giants pass defense has given up the lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (62.3%) vs. TEs this year (62.3%).

Projection

THE BLITZ
29
Receiving Yards