Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Demario DouglasReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Giants vs. Patriots
Right now, Demario Douglas’s receiving yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (-118/-109).
The public has bet the OVER up to 49.5 (-118) after it opened @ 46.5 (-113).
Pros
- Our trusted projections expect the Patriots offense to be the 2nd-fastest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 26.19 seconds per snap.
- The leading projections forecast Demario Douglas to accumulate 6.9 targets in this week’s game, on average, ranking him in the 78th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
- Our trusted projections expect Demario Douglas to be a much smaller part of his team’s passing offense in this game (6.2% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (14.7% in games he has played).
- The Giants defense has surrendered the 5th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in football (183.0) vs. wide receivers this year.
- This year, the deficient Giants defense has allowed the 3rd-most yards-after-the-catch in football to opposing WRs: a massive 5.30 YAC.
Cons
- With a 4.5-point advantage, the Patriots are favored in this week’s game, implying more of a reliance on running than their usual game plan.
- Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the New England Patriots to pass on 53.8% of their downs: the 7th-lowest rate on the slate this week.
- When talking about pass protection (and the ramifications it has on all air attack metrics), the offensive line of the New England Patriots ranks as the 10th-worst in the league this year.
- With a feeble 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (1st percentile) this year, Demario Douglas stands as one of the best pass-catching wide receivers in the league in space.
Projection
THE BLITZ
53
Receiving Yards
53
Receiving Yards
