Week 12 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Demario Douglas from EV Insight

Demario DouglasReceiving Yards

Right now, Demario Douglas’s receiving yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (-118/-109).

The public has bet the OVER up to 49.5 (-118) after it opened @ 46.5 (-113).

Pros

Our trusted projections expect the Patriots offense to be the 2nd-fastest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 26.19 seconds per snap.
The leading projections forecast Demario Douglas to accumulate 6.9 targets in this week’s game, on average, ranking him in the 78th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
Our trusted projections expect Demario Douglas to be a much smaller part of his team’s passing offense in this game (6.2% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (14.7% in games he has played).
The Giants defense has surrendered the 5th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in football (183.0) vs. wide receivers this year.
This year, the deficient Giants defense has allowed the 3rd-most yards-after-the-catch in football to opposing WRs: a massive 5.30 YAC.

Cons

With a 4.5-point advantage, the Patriots are favored in this week’s game, implying more of a reliance on running than their usual game plan.
Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the New England Patriots to pass on 53.8% of their downs: the 7th-lowest rate on the slate this week.
When talking about pass protection (and the ramifications it has on all air attack metrics), the offensive line of the New England Patriots ranks as the 10th-worst in the league this year.
With a feeble 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (1st percentile) this year, Demario Douglas stands as one of the best pass-catching wide receivers in the league in space.

Projection

THE BLITZ
53
Receiving Yards