Week 12 Player Props: Receiving Yards for DeAndre Hopkins from EV Insight

DeAndre HopkinsReceiving Yards

Right now, DeAndre Hopkins’s receiving yards prop is set at 60.5 yards (-110/-120).

The public has bet the OVER up to 60.5 (-110) after it opened @ 55.5 (-115).

Pros

The leading projections forecast the Tennessee Titans offensive gameplan to tilt 2.1% more towards the passing game than it did last season (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Tim Kelly now calling the plays.
In this contest, DeAndre Hopkins is anticipated by the predictive model to finish in the 83rd percentile among wideouts with 7.8 targets.
DeAndre Hopkins has accrued far more air yards this season (116.0 per game) than he did last season (111.0 per game).
DeAndre Hopkins’s 70.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the best in the NFL: 94th percentile for wideouts.
DeAndre Hopkins’s 3.26 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year marks a substantial gain in his effectiveness in the open field over last year’s 2.2% rate.

Cons

The Titans are a 3.5-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
The model projects the Titans as the least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 50.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
The model projects this game to see the fewest plays run among all games this week at 125.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have run the fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a mere 52.7 plays per game.
Opposing offenses teams have been reluctant to lean on the pass against the Panthers, totaling the 3rd-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 30.7 per game) this year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
54
Receiving Yards