Week 12 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Darnell Mooney from EV Insight

Darnell MooneyReceiving Yards

Right now, Darnell Mooney’s receiving yards prop is set at 43.5 yards (-108/-127).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 43.5 (-127) after it opened @ 50.5 (-115).

Pros

The Chicago Bears will be rolling with backup QB Trevor Siemian in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
The Bears are a 6.5-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Darnell Mooney to garner 7.0 targets in this week’s contest, on average, putting him in the 78th percentile among wide receivers.
Darnell Mooney has been an integral part of his team’s passing attack, earning a Target Share of 27.8% this year, which puts him in the 96th percentile among wide receivers.
Darnell Mooney’s receiving reliability have improved this year, with his Completion% increasing from 59.7% to 70.4%.

Cons

The Chicago Bears will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 9.8% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the 2nd-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 46.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Bears to call the 6th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Chicago Bears have run the 6th-least plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 55.6 plays per game.
The New York Jets defense has conceded the 3rd-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 119.0) to wide receivers this year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
39
Receiving Yards