College Football Props of the Week: Week 4
Walter Waddell
Cole KmetReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Vikings vs. Bears
Right now, Cole Kmet’s receiving yards prop is set at 36.5 yards (-113/-121).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 36.5 (-121) after it opened @ 37.5 (-121).
Pros
- This game’s line implies a throwing game script for the Bears, who are -3-point underdogs.
- The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm “weather” conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may slide.
- The projections expect Cole Kmet to earn 5.5 targets in this week’s contest, on average, putting him in the 88th percentile when it comes to TEs.
- As it relates to air yards, Cole Kmet grades out in the lofty 80th percentile among tight ends this year, accumulating an impressive 28.0 per game.
- Cole Kmet has put up substantially more adjusted receiving yards per game (47.0) this year than he did last year (32.0).
Cons
- The model projects the Chicago Bears as the least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 52.1% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
- Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Bears are forecasted by the predictive model to run only 62.5 offensive plays in this game: the lowest number on the slate this week.
- Cole Kmet’s 72.7% Route Participation% this season reflects a meaningful reduction in his passing offense usage over last season’s 84.0% figure.
- The Minnesota Vikings pass defense has displayed strong efficiency against TEs this year, conceding 6.69 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 8th-fewest in the league.
- The Minnesota Vikings safeties grade out as the 3rd-best unit in football this year in pass coverage.
Projection
THE BLITZ
43
Receiving Yards
43
Receiving Yards
