Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Russell WilsonPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Panthers vs. Broncos
Right now, Russell Wilson’s passing yards prop is set at 219.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 219.5 (-110) after it opened @ 218.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.8% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos offense to be the 7th-quickest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 27.04 seconds per play.
- Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 8th-highest level in the league vs. the Carolina Panthers defense this year (73.8%).
- The Carolina Panthers safeties rank as the 5th-worst group of safeties in football this year in covering receivers.
- The Denver Broncos offensive line has given their QB 2.68 seconds before the pass (6th-best in the league since the start of last season), which has a strong effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.
Cons
- The weatherman calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
- Russell Wilson’s throwing accuracy has worsened this season, with his Completion% falling off from 65.3% to 57.4%.
- The Carolina Panthers pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency this year, giving up 7.40 yards-per-target: the 10th-least in the NFL.
- The Carolina Panthers defense has been quite strong when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, yielding an average of 4.62 yards-after-the-catch this year: the least in football.
- The Carolina Panthers defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the fastest in football since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
237
Passing Yards
237
Passing Yards
