Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Patrick MahomesPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Chiefs vs. Rams
Right now, Patrick Mahomes’s passing yards prop is set at 281.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 281.5 (-110) after it opened @ 285.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the most pass-heavy team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 72.4% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to call the 5th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 67.2 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Patrick Mahomes to attempt 40.1 passes in this game, on average: the 4th-most of all QBs.
- Patrick Mahomes has passed for many more yards per game (347.0) this season than he did last season (255.0).
- Patrick Mahomes has been among the most accurate QBs in the NFL this year with an impressive 66.5% Completion%, checking in at the 76th percentile.
Cons
- The Chiefs are a 5.5-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 32.1 pass attempts per game against the Los Angeles Rams defense this year: 10th-least in the league.
- The Los Angeles Rams pass defense has shown good efficiency this year, yielding 7.24 yards-per-target: the 7th-least in the NFL.
- The Los Angeles Rams pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.37 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 4th-fastest in the league since the start of last season.
- The Kansas City Chiefs have faced a stacked the box on just 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
272
Passing Yards
272
Passing Yards
