WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
D’Onta ForemanRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Panthers vs. Broncos
Right now, D’Onta Foreman’s rushing yards prop is set at 58.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- The Carolina Panthers boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.1% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers as the 9th-most run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 46.3% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects D’Onta Foreman to accumulate 18.1 carries in this week’s contest, on average, putting him in the 91st percentile among running backs.
- The Denver Broncos have stacked the box against opponents on just 9.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in football. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
Cons
- The Carolina Panthers will be starting backup quarterback Sam Darnold in this game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
- THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers as the 3rd-slowest paced defense in the league (context-neutralized) right now, causing opposing offenses to average 29.22 seconds per snap.
- D’Onta Foreman has run for a lot fewer yards per game (44.0) this season than he did last season (56.0).
- The Carolina Panthers have been faced with a stacked the box on 19.7% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
76
Rushing Yards
76
Rushing Yards
