Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Joshua DobbsPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Vikings vs. Bears
Right now, Joshua Dobbs’s passing yards prop is set at 232.5 yards (+100/-137).
The public has bet the OVER up to 232.5 (+100) after it opened @ 231.5 (-117).
Pros
- The Minnesota Vikings may rely on the pass game less this week (and call more rushes) because they be forced to use backup QB Joshua Dobbs.
- Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Vikings to pass on 61.6% of their downs: the 7th-greatest rate on the slate this week.
- The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer.
- The leading projections forecast Joshua Dobbs to attempt 37.2 passes in this week’s contest, on average: the 8th-most out of all quarterbacks.
- The Bears defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, compelling opposing QBs to attempt the 3rd-most passes in football (40.1 per game) this year.
Cons
- A rushing game script is implied by the Vikings being a 3-point favorite in this week’s contest.
- The leading projections forecast this game to have the fewest plays run among all games this week at 126.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- With an atrocious rate of 145.0 adjusted passing yards per game (13th percentile), Joshua Dobbs rates among the weakest QBs in football this year.
- With a weak 6.00 adjusted yards-per-target (9th percentile) this year, Joshua Dobbs has been among the least efficient QBs in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
248
Passing Yards
248
Passing Yards
