Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Desmond RidderPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Falcons vs. Saints
Right now, Desmond Ridder’s passing yards prop is set at 200.5 yards (-110/-120).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 200.5 (-120) after it opened @ 205.5 (-120).
Pros
- The model projects this game to see the largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 137.3 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The 4th-highest number of plays in the league have been run by the Falcons this year (a staggering 61.9 per game on average).
- The air attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm “weather” conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may decline.
Cons
- The projections expect the Falcons as the 7th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 55.1% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
- This year, the tough Saints defense has surrendered a paltry 63.7% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 2nd-lowest rate in the NFL.
- The Saints pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency this year, giving up 6.98 adjusted yards-per-target: the 6th-fewest in football.
- When it comes to cornerbacks in pass coverage, New Orleans’s CB corps has been very good this year, ranking as the 7th-best in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
241
Passing Yards
241
Passing Yards
