Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Derek CarrPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Falcons vs. Saints
Right now, Derek Carr’s passing yards prop is set at 232.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 232.5 (-110) after it opened @ 236.5 (-114).
Pros
- The projections expect the New Orleans Saints as the 10th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 60.4% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
- The model projects the Saints to call the 2nd-most total plays among all teams this week with 67.8 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
- The Saints have run the 2nd-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 63.8 plays per game.
- The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm “weather” conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may fall-off.
- This week, Derek Carr is predicted by the projections to total the 4th-most pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 37.9.
Cons
- When talking about pocket protection (and the importance it has on all air attack statistics), the O-line of the Saints ranks as the 6th-worst in football this year.
- With a poor 6.42 adjusted yards-per-target (19th percentile) this year, Derek Carr ranks as one of the worst per-play quarterbacks in the league.
- This year, the fierce Falcons defense has surrendered a feeble 67.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 8th-best rate in the league.
- This year, the formidable Atlanta Falcons defense has given up the 8th-least yards-after-the-catch in the league to opposing offenses: a paltry 4.6 YAC.
Projection
THE BLITZ
261
Passing Yards
261
Passing Yards
