Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
We had some very exciting games during Week 12 as well as some stellar performances. Five quarterbacks, five running backs, nine wide receivers and four tight ends surpassed 20 fantasy points on the week.
Week 13 once again features zero teams on bye due to Thanksgiving. That means we will get a chance to see three games on Thursday as well as another game on Friday. For most, the fantasy playoffs are just two weeks away. Check out Week 12’s risers and fallers to target or drop in fantasy below.
Risers
Bryce Young, QB, Carolina Panthers
The momentary reset for Bryce Young has seemingly paid dividends. Over the last three weeks, Young is completing over 60% of his passes for 560 yards and three touchdowns with one interception.
Young had arguably the best game of his career against the Chiefs, throwing into tight coverages and navigating the blitz from Kansas City’s defense with poise. The second-year quarterback continues to earn more opportunities to show that he can still be the quarterback of the future for Dave Canales.
Is Young in a place where he can be started with confidence in fantasy? No.
But the quarterback is showing that he can put together good games despite the lack of talent around him at wide receiver.
Bucky Irving, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Rookie running back Bucky Irving was the biggest beneficiary of Tampa Bay’s blowout victory over the New York Giants.
He paced the Buccaneers backfield in snaps (34), routes run (20) and targets (six). He tied Rachaad White in carries (12). Irving was by far the most productive offensive player for Tampa Bay in Week 12, generating 87 rushing yards and a touchdown along with six receptions for 64 yards.
Irving’s play continues to justify more opportunities on the field. He’s pulled into a completely balanced timeshare with White through 12 weeks. Irving remains the preferred option in positive game scripts (which caps his upside), but he has weekly fantasy appeal thanks to his efficiency on the ground.
John Metchie III, WR, Houston Texans
John Metchie III continues to see his role grow in Houston’s offense with Stefon Diggs out for the season. Metchie has served as the third receiver in Houston’s three-receiver sets since Diggs suffered a season-ending injury.
This week, that meant that Metchie was on the field for 40 snaps. He finished third on the team in routes run (31) and tied for fourth in targets (3), well behind Nico Collins (9), Joe Mixon (6) and Tank Dell (5).
It is likely that Metchie’s Week 10 performance against the Lions (five receptions for 74 yards and a touchdown) is the high-water mark for the veteran receiver this year. However, he continues to see the field and is earning opportunities in an offense searching for answers.
If Houston continues to struggle as a team, that will only lead to more opportunities for Metchie. He isn’t quite fantasy-relevant yet, but I think we can all celebrate a player who overcame cancer as a rookie finding a meaningful role in his third year.
Devaughn Vele, WR, Denver Broncos
Devaughn Vele is emerging as Denver’s second receiver behind Courtland Sutton The improvements from Bo Nix at quarterback have also had a significant impact on Vele’s viability as a flex play in fantasy.
Vele had his best game of the season against the Raiders in Week 12. The rookie caught six of nine targets for 80 yards in Denver’s win. Over the last three weeks, Vele has caught 14 of 18 targets for 185 yards and a touchdown.
The rookie receiver doesn’t have the explosiveness to produce big fantasy weeks without getting consistent volume. However, he is finding himself on the field more and more as the season goes on and is earning targets from Nix.
If you are in PPR leagues, then Vele needs to be on your radar if he is still available on waivers. For fantasy managers in .5-PPR leagues, he’s probably worth a pass unless he emerges as a more consistent option in the red zone.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Seattle Seahawks
There was some slight concern that Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s role would revert to normal after two stellar weeks without DK Metcalf in the lineup. In two weeks without Metcalf, Smith-Njigba caught 13 of 20 targets for 249 yards and two touchdowns.
The second-year receiver role with Metcalf healthy has not been ideal the last two seasons.
However, he has been able to maintain a consistent role in the team’s passing attack with Metcalf back on the field. Over the last two weeks, Smith-Njigba has caught 16 of 18 targets for 187 yards and a touchdown. He has also led the team in targets the last two weeks.
It is a stretch to say that Smith-Njigba has surpassed Metcalf as the primary receiver in Seattle, but he has certainly established himself as the secondary target with the team. With Seattle being so pass-heavy this season, that means he will see more than enough targets down the stretch to justify being a top-24 wide receiver option in fantasy.
Fallers
Gardner Minshew II, QB, Las Vegas Raiders
Gardner Minshew II’s tenure with the Raiders came to an unfortunate end in Week 12, with the veteran quarterback suffering a season-ending collarbone injury against the Broncos. Minshew had been playing a respectable game to that point (230 yards with a touchdown and an interception), keeping Vegas in striking distance.
Minshew’s status as the team’s starting quarterback was likely going to be in question in Week 13 with Aidan O’Connell eligible to return after suffering a broken thumb earlier in the season. There is a chance we are subjected to a start or two from Desmond Ridder until O’Connell is ready to get under center.
If Ridder starts, there are few Raiders skill players you can trust. However, a quick return from O’Connell bodes well for both Jakobi Meyers and Brock Bowers for the rest of the season.
The Giants’ Offensive Weapons
The first game of the Tommy DeVito experience was quite underwhelming. The second-year quarterback had an efficient day (67.7% completion percentage) but posted just 189 passing yards and zero touchdowns or interceptions. That’s a rough day against a Buccaneers secondary that has been picked on by opposing quarterbacks all season.
The skill players around DeVito all suffered from the subpar performance. Malik Nabers was held without a reception in the first half before rebounding with six receptions (on nine targets) for a 64-yard performance. Both he and Tyrone Tracy Jr. (nine carries for 42 yards with four receptions for 28 yards) were the only players to accumulate more than 40 yards of offense on the day.
Nabers and Tracy will likely be the only players to worry about in fantasy during the DeVito tenure, and even their status as reliable fantasy options has taken a hit. If DeVito flames out, things can only get worse with either Drew Lock or Tim Boyle on the roster at quarterback.
David Montgomery, RB, Detroit Lions
David Montgomery was able to provide some fantasy production against the Colts (eight carries for 37 yards and a touchdown with three receptions for 36 yards) before ultimately suffering a shoulder injury that forced him to miss a majority of the second half.
There is no reason to believe that the shoulder injury is a long-term issue, but there should be a level of concern with how healthy Montgomery is heading into a Week 13 matchup against the Bears on Thanksgiving. Even if Montgomery is healthy, the Lions should be able to run the up score and get him on the bench against a poor Chicago defense.
There aren’t any concerns beyond Week 13 for Montgomery’s availability due to his minor shoulder injury, but fantasy managers may want to watch practice reports to see how much they’ll be able to trust him in a short week.
Jonathon Brooks, RB, Carolina Panthers
We got the long-awaited debut of rookie second-round pick Jonathon Brooks in Carolina’s Week 13 game against the Chiefs. Unfortunately, that debut consisted of just five snaps and two carries for seven yards.
Meanwhile, Chuba Hubbard (16 carries for 58 yards and a touchdown with one reception for two yards) continued to produce at a high level for the Panthers. As much as the Panthers want to see their second-round pick, it makes little sense to put him on the field for a considerable workload in what has been another season full of losses.
Brooks likely won’t see the work fantasy managers envisioned when they drafted him and stashed him this season. Unless Hubbard goes down with an injury, Brooks has very little fantasy appeal until we start to see the team trust him with touches on the field.
Jalen Coker, WR, Carolina Panthers
Jalen Coker was inactive against Kansas City due to a quad injury. Unfortunately for the rookie (and his fantasy managers), Adam Thielen was able to return to his consistent role as Bryce Young’s preferred target in the slot.
Thielen caught three of his four targets for 57 yards against Kansas City while working primarily from the slot. The Panthers continued to utilize David Moore (six receptions for 81 yards and a touchdown) and Xavier Legette (four receptions for 56 yards) as their outside receivers.
Thielen’s return introduces a complicated timeshare for the Panthers. On one hand, it makes sense to see what they have in a young player like Coker. On the other hand, Thielen’s route-running from the slot is essential as the team tries to figure out if Young has the tools to be the quarterback of the future.
The reality is that when Coker returns, we will see four receivers split the bulk of the snaps at receiver for the Panthers. That makes it unlikely that any single player earns enough target share to be consistently relied upon for fantasy.
