Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Rachaad WhiteRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 11
49ers vs. Buccaneers
Right now, Rachaad White’s rushing yards prop is set at 43.5 yards (-110/-118).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 43.5 (-118) after it opened @ 44.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to skew 5.0% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- The predictive model expects Rachaad White to notch 14.5 rush attempts in this game, on balance, ranking him in the 78th percentile when it comes to running backs.
- After making up 33.7% of his offense’s rush attempts last season, Rachaad White has had a larger role in the ground game this season, now comprising 58.2%.
- Rachaad White’s 48.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this season indicates a significant growth in his running skills over last season’s 30.0 figure.
Cons
- At a -13.5-point disadvantage, the Buccaneers are heavy underdogs in this week’s contest, implying much more of a reliance on passing than their typical game plan.
- The leading projections forecast the Buccaneers to be the 2nd-least run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 37.0% run rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
- The model projects the Buccaneers to call the fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 60.0 plays, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line ranks as the 5th-worst in football last year at run-game blocking.
- This year, the strong San Francisco 49ers run defense has yielded a mere 80.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to opposing offenses: the 4th-fewest in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
60
Rushing Yards
60
Rushing Yards
