NFL

Bets

November 16, 2023

Week 11 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Josh Jacobs from EV Insight

FTN Staff

Josh JacobsRushing Yards

Right now, Josh Jacobs’s rushing yards prop is set at 64.5 yards (-115/-113).

The public has bet the OVER up to 64.5 (-115) after it opened @ 61.5 (-113).

Pros

Our trusted projections expect Josh Jacobs to accumulate 20.6 rush attempts in this week’s contest, on average, putting him in the 98th percentile among RBs.
Josh Jacobs has garnered 80.9% of his offense’s rushing play calls this year, putting him in the 100th percentile when it comes to RBs.
The Raiders O-line profiles as the 3rd-best in football last year in run support.

Cons

An extreme passing game script is indicated by the Raiders being a big -14-point underdog in this game.
The model projects the Raiders to be the 8th-least run-focused team on the slate this week with a 40.6% run rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
The model projects the Raiders to call the 5th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 62.8 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
The 3rd-fewest plays in the NFL have been run by the Las Vegas Raiders this year (a lowly 53.6 per game on average).
Josh Jacobs has run for substantially fewer adjusted yards per game (63.0) this season than he did last season (100.0).

Projection

THE BLITZ
88
Rushing Yards