Week 11 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Gus Edwards from EV Insight

Gus EdwardsRushing Yards

Right now, Gus Edwards’s rushing yards prop is set at 45.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 45.5 (-110) after it opened @ 49.5 (-114).

Pros

With a 3.5-point advantage, the Ravens are favored in this week’s contest, suggesting more of a reliance on running than their typical game plan.
The predictive model expects the Baltimore Ravens as the 2nd-most run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 48.4% run rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
With an exceptional record of 52.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (77th percentile), Gus Edwards stands as one of the leading pure runners in football this year.
The Cincinnati Bengals defense has produced the 3rd-worst efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, allowing 4.98 adjusted yards-per-carry.
The Bengals linebackers grade out as the 5th-worst collection of LBs in the NFL this year in regard to defending the run.

Cons

The Ravens have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to skew 3.6% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Baltimore Ravens are predicted by the projections to call only 62.8 total plays in this game: the 6th-fewest among all teams this week.
The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still weather conditions (3-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while ground volume may go down.
Gus Edwards has been a more important option in his team’s offense this year, staying on the field for 45.0% of snaps compared to just 26.4% last year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
43
Rushing Yards