Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Gus EdwardsRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Ravens vs. Bengals
Right now, Gus Edwards’s rushing yards prop is set at 45.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 45.5 (-110) after it opened @ 49.5 (-114).
Pros
- With a 3.5-point advantage, the Ravens are favored in this week’s contest, suggesting more of a reliance on running than their typical game plan.
- The predictive model expects the Baltimore Ravens as the 2nd-most run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 48.4% run rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
- With an exceptional record of 52.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (77th percentile), Gus Edwards stands as one of the leading pure runners in football this year.
- The Cincinnati Bengals defense has produced the 3rd-worst efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, allowing 4.98 adjusted yards-per-carry.
- The Bengals linebackers grade out as the 5th-worst collection of LBs in the NFL this year in regard to defending the run.
Cons
- The Ravens have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to skew 3.6% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Baltimore Ravens are predicted by the projections to call only 62.8 total plays in this game: the 6th-fewest among all teams this week.
- The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still weather conditions (3-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while ground volume may go down.
- Gus Edwards has been a more important option in his team’s offense this year, staying on the field for 45.0% of snaps compared to just 26.4% last year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
43
Rushing Yards
43
Rushing Yards
