Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Welcome to Hoops with Noops! We have an In-Season NBA Tournament Tuesday 10-game slate lined up. As we covered Monday, the NBA IST has been good for underdogs and overs in the first 16 games, but we’re just keeping an eye on those trends for now and will wait to attack them once we get a sample size.
This is the first group of tournament games where teams will be asked to play again Wednesday, and several of those teams playing Wednesday face top opponents in their division. I’m curious to see who gets rested here and then plays Wednesday and vice versa. The In-Season Tournament games have felt different, and I expect that to continue, but Tuesday we should learn even more about how teams are approaching IST games.
Unfortunately, that means we’ll have to wait for injury news right up to tip off to make some of our wagers, but there is value to be had. Let’s dive into the games, see which bets we’re making now, and which bets we’re looking to possibly make later.
NBA Best Bets for Tuesday
Atlanta Hawks at Detroit Pistons
Current Line – Hawks -4.5, 225.5
My Projection – Hawks 113, Pistons 111
Key Injuries – Trae Young, Bojan Bogdanovic, Jalen Duren, Joe Harris, and Monte Morris are out.
Tuesday is setting up to a tough spot for the Atlanta Hawks. Trey Young was announced out earlier Tuesday, and this game is a one-game road trip before playing at home against the New York Knicks Wednesday. That said, there are two things that may help their performance. The first is that teams generally do well against the spread when one of their star players is missing. Determining the value of a single player is one of the toughest things to assess and it seems sportsbook tend to overvalue star players. Anecdotally, there is an element of the rest of the team “stepping up” their games and playing their best basketball to carry the load without their leader. Either way, Atlanta has a deep roster and can survive a game without Trae Young.
The second thing that helps Atlanta is that the Detroit Pistons are terrible. They are especially awful when playing without Jalen Duren and Bojan Bogdanovic. Cade Cunningham is scoring more, but not shooting better, Ausar Thompson is a great rebounder, and that’s really the nice things I can say about the Pistons. My projections do make this a close game, but it’s mostly because Atlanta is in such a bad schedule spot without Young. What my numbers do like is the under in this game. If you’re in the FTN Discord and follow the #nba-plays channel, you go under 230.5 earlier today which is great for us, but I have good news for everyone. I’d adding a Hawks team total under bet as well. Unless the pace gets out of hand for some reason, this should be an ugly game and a low scoring night for the Hawks in Detroit.
Bet
Atlanta Hawks Team Total Under 115.5 (-115, BetMGM)
Orlando Magic at Brooklyn Nets
Current Line – Nets -3, 218.5
My Projection – Nets 110, Magic 109
Key Injuries – Wendell Carter, Markelle Fultz, Ben Simmons and Cam Thomas are out. Gary Harris is questionable.
Although we’ve had a lot of missed games and injury nonsense throughout the start to this season, I think this is one of games (maybe the only one) that’s left me disappointed. Orlando and Brooklyn have two of the more interesting rosters in the Eastern Conference, and either could be a diamond if cut and crafted the right way. It should still be a tightly contested game, but I would have loved to see how Wendell Carter handles the athletic Nets or how Cam Thomas would try to score around the long-armed Magic. My projections are close to the market, but there is a prop angle I’ve been playing for a few weeks now to some success and will continue tonight. With Carter out, the Magic have had to rely more on Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner to guard bigs and focus more on rebounding. Whether it be in this article or the FTN Discord, we’ve bet over Banchero’s and Wagner’s rebounds totals. There will be an adjustment though, because we are only betting Wagner’s over. Banchero’s prices have finally moved into a range that looks right to me. For comparison, Banchero 10-plus rebounds is +170. It was +285 three days ago and +425 five days ago. Franz Wagner’s prices have moved, but less so. Wagner 10-plus rebounds is +420. It was +550 three days ago and +650 five days ago. Still a move, but a much smaller one and I still see value in betting on Wagner to get a lot of rebounds again.
Bets
Franz Wagner 6+ Rebounds (+135, FanDuel Sportsbook, 0.75U)
Franz Wagner 8+ Rebounds (+420, FanDuel Sportsbook, 0.25U)
Quick Thoughts on Games I’m Not Betting
Indiana Pacers at Philadelphia 76ers -5, 240
As do most things with the 76ers, this comes down to the availability of Joel Embiid. He is listed questionable, but Philadelphia plays the Celtics tomorrow night. If there was ever a night for Embiid to rest, it would be here. Lean Pacers and over, but I have to pass not knowing if the reigning MVP will be on the court.
Miami Heat at Charlotte Hornets +5, 223
Both teams are missing starters and are in less than great schedule spots. I was happy these prices were so close to my numbers allowing me to pass on betting this game, which I am doing. I think Miami wins an ugly game, but it could easily fly over the total.
San Antonio Spurs at Oklahoma City Thunder -10.5, 238.5
I wish we had been able to grab OKC at the opener with was -8, but this price is correct as far as I can tell. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is healthy, and Chet Holmgren seems to play his best basketball against Victor Wembanyama. Enjoy the battle of the very tall guys, but there’s nothing of value to bet.
Dallas Mavericks at New Orleans Pelicans +4, 240
If you have any idea how to figure out the Pelicans are going to do each night, please, get in touch with me because I need your help. New Orleans is a tough team for me to handicap because they are so weak in the backcourt and so strong in the frontcourt. No CJ McCollum means no offensive distributor to get the ball to the bigs. No Jose Alvarado, and no Herbert Jones means no perimeter defenders. I think Dallas cruises, but I really don’t know.
Portland Trail Blazers at Utah Jazz -6.5, 231.5
Portland will be playing one of the worst rosters in recent history Tuesday, since they are without Scoot Henderson, Anfernee Simons and Malcolm Brogdon. I’m not sure they should be less than double-digit dogs, but I’m also not sure if the Jazz should be double-digit favorites without Walker Kessler. There might be value in some Jazz alternate spreads like Jazz -9.5 +134 and -14.5 +270, but I’m happy to not bet on this mess of a game.
Minnesota Timberwolves at Golden State Warriors +2.5, 217
I had written a lot about this game and then Stephen Curry was announced out for this contest. If you’re in the FTN Bets Discord, you should have some Timberwolves ML +112, which looks like an excellent position now. Unfortunately, there’s nothing to bet now the market has moved.
Los Angeles Clippers at Denver Nuggets -4.5, 225
You have to be against the Clippers right? Well, the market has now had four games to be shaped by Harden’s impact and this number has moved towards the Clippers today. The spread opened up at 6 and might even get to 4. It is a weird schedule spot for Denver. They were in Houston Sunday and play in New Orleans Friday. I’m going watch this one and see all these Clippers bettors were on to something.
Memphis Grizzlies at Los Angeles Lakers -6, 225
This game is pretty simple once we know if LeBron James is playing. If LeBron has no issues during pre-game and plays, bet over his rebound props. If LeBron does not play, bet over Austin Reaves points/rebounds/assists combined total. Until we know, there’s nothing we should do.
