Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
D’Andre SwiftRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Chiefs vs. Eagles
Right now, D’Andre Swift’s rushing yards prop is set at 59.5 yards (+100/-129).
The public has bet the OVER up to 59.5 (+100) after it opened @ 58.5 (-112).
Pros
- In this contest, D’Andre Swift is projected by the projection model to place in the 85th percentile among RBs with 16.4 carries.
- D’Andre Swift has been a more integral piece of his team’s run game this season (49.1% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (25.3%).
- The Eagles offensive line profiles as the 4th-best in the league last year in run-blocking.
- D’Andre Swift has run for significantly more adjusted yards per game (69.0) this year than he did last year (38.0).
- The Kansas City Chiefs defense has had the worst efficiency against opposing run games this year, giving up 4.50 adjusted yards-per-carry.
Cons
- At the present time, the slowest paced team in football (adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Philadelphia Eagles.
- D’Andre Swift’s 4.6 adjusted yards per carry this season reflects a substantial decrease in his running talent over last season’s 5.4 figure.
- With a terrible total of 2.41 yards after contact (17th percentile) this year, D’Andre Swift stands as one of the weakest running backs in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
70
Rushing Yards
70
Rushing Yards
