Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Chuba HubbardRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Panthers vs. Cowboys
Right now, Chuba Hubbard’s rushing yards prop is set at 37.5 yards (-110/-120).
The public has bet the OVER up to 37.5 (-110) after it opened @ 35.5 (-118).
Pros
- The predictive model expects the Panthers offense to be the 7th-quickest paced team in football (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 26.70 seconds per snap.
- In this contest, Chuba Hubbard is forecasted by the predictive model to slot into the 81st percentile when it comes to running backs with 15.0 carries.
- The model projects Chuba Hubbard to be a more integral piece of his offense’s rushing attack in this week’s game (59.0% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (43.8% in games he has played).
- In regards to opening holes for runners (and the impact it has on all ground game metrics), the O-line of the Carolina Panthers grades out as the 10th-best in football last year.
Cons
- The Panthers boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Thomas Brown, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to skew 6.6% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- This week’s line suggests an extreme passing game script for the Panthers, who are massive -11.5-point underdogs.
- The projections expect the Carolina Panthers to be the 4th-least run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 39.0% run rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
- The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (3-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while ground volume may fall-off.
- Chuba Hubbard’s 3.8 adjusted yards per carry this year represents an impressive reduction in his running prowess over last year’s 4.7 mark.
Projection
THE BLITZ
65
Rushing Yards
65
Rushing Yards
