NBA Prop of the Day
Jake Silverman
Welcome to Hoops with Noops! Happy NBA In-Season Tournament Friday! We’ve got 11 games Friday that all count toward the chance at a bonus payday and trip to Las Vegas for the In-Season Tournament Championship. Admittedly, I’m not surprised that the league that brought us the Finals and the Play-In Tournament wasn’t more creative, but we need a better name for this things.
Leave your ideas in the comments of the Hoops with Noops video edition on the FTNBets YouTube channel. Taking a look at the results so far for the IST, we’ve seen home underdogs do very well. They’re 8-1 against the spread for a profit of 7.5 units at -110 pricing. This is a small sample size and could just be noise, but keep thinking of and looking for home team advantages in these games. Do the gaudy courts make it harder for officials to see what’s happening and they default to the home team call? Are home teams getting more time on these fancy floors and are more used to them than their opponents? It’s early, but we’ll keep tracking that. Now, onto some basketball games and bets.
NBA Best Bets for Friday
New York Knicks at Washington Wizards
Current Line – Knicks -7, 227.5
My Projection – Knicks 117, Wizards 108
Key Injuries – RJ Barrett is questionable.
One of the most important parts of betting (NBA or otherwise) is trying to find angles that aren’t being priced into the markets properly. Tom Thibodeau teams, and especially the New York Knicks, have historically played bad teams better than most of the NBA. OK, that’s a little confusing, but what it means is that Thibodeau teams don’t play down to their competition and either beat the worst teams by more than the spread or lock them down keeping their scoring low. Friday is a perfect example of just that phenomenon as the Knicks face the Wizards. Washington is a truly awful basketball team. Jordan Poole is setting world records for nonsense nightly while everyone buy Kyle Kuzma has regressed since last season. This team looks disjointed, and that’s the worst kind of team to have facing a Knicks team that is known for playing well together with a high level of effort. I show value on the spread and the Wizards team total under and I’m betting the latter. This is the first game of a back-to-back for New York which means they could slow the game down late and fail to cover the spread, but keep Washington under this high number.
Bet
Washington Wizards Team Total Under 110.5 (-118, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Boston Celtics at Toronto Raptors
Current Line – Celtics -8, 224
My Projection – Celtics 114, Raptors 106
Key Injuries – OG Anunoby is doubtful. Jaylen Brown and Kristaps Porzingis are questionable.
It’s time for some Atlantic Division basketball. This will be the second of four meetings between the Celtics and Raptors and the second time they’ve played in a week. Last time everyone was healthy and ready to go, but that does not seem to be the case this evening. Jaylen Brown and Kristaps Porzingis are big parts of Boston’s success and especially so on the offensive end of the court. Both provide much needed spacing for Boston. Pace is generally slow in this matchup, and it was in their first meeting, which had a pace of 98. If both Brown and Porzingis are out, this number is going well under the listed total and even if both play, I have this game projected at just 222. Both teams match up very well with each other. Boston’s defense is among the best in the league and there’s certainly no one on the Raptors that has the offensive talent to over Boston’s D and create points for Toronto. Conversely, the Raptors are loaded with long, athletic defenders that know how to frustrate the Celtics and clog up the floor especially if Porzingis is not on the floor. This looks like a nice spot to bet an under. Overs have been pretty good, 15-11, so far in the In-Season Tournament, but I don’t think that’s the case here.
Bet
Celtics/Raptors Under 224 (-110, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Detroit Pistons at Cleveland Cavaliers
Current Line – Cavaliers -9, 220
My Projection – Cavaliers 114, Pistons 103
Key Injuries – Bojan Bogdanovic, Jalen Duren and Joe Harris are out. Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell are questionable.
Take a second and read through that “key injuries” section again. Wouldn’t that be a really fun offensive five-man unit? Two great guards, a big man that can roll, and lots of shooting. Unfortunately, that means we’ll be without most or all of that talent. I’m expecting either Darius Garland or Donovan Mitchell to play for the Cavaliers, but the Pistons are playing again with key elements that would provide spacing for Cade Cunningham and the offense. The starting lineup of Cunningham, Killian Hayes, Ausar Thompson, Isaiah Stewart and Marvin Bagley is one of the worst shooting groups in the NBA and not surprisingly one of the worst offensive units. Ausar Thompson has been great as a rookie and his rebounding props flew over for the first few weeks before the markets adjusted. A big part of that was all the shots Detroit misses being available to rebound. To make matters worse, Cleveland is one of the best defensive teams in the league, especially at the rim where Detroit takes most of their shots. This should be an ugly night for the Pistons, so let’s bet the under on their team total. I have them at 103 which makes under 105.5 a nice bet.
Bet
Detroit Pistons Team Total Under 105.5 (-110, BetMGM)
Orlando Magic at Chicago Bulls
Current Line – Bulls -1.5, 215.5
My Projection – Bulls 108, Magic 107
Key Injuries – Wendell Carter and Markelle Fultz are out. DeMar DeRozan is questionable.
It could finally be rebuild time in Chicago. Apparently Zach LaVine is available, although I think teams would rather have Alex Caruso or even DeMar DeRozan, but it finally seems like this Bulls team will be broken apart. With all that looming, they have a game tonight against the Orlando Magic for the second time in a row. Chicago got the win by just two points in a game that was even uglier than the 96-94 scoreline would suggest. For the sake of comparison, on that same night four teams scored 96 or more points through three quarters and two more scored 94 and 95 points through three quarters. Maybe don’t watch this game, there’s a lot more basketball on that’s going to be a lot more enjoyable. What you should do is get right back on the Franz Wagner rebounds over train. For the first time in the last six games, Wagner failed to have five or more rebounds in his last game. I’m ready to get right back to betting it for as long as Wendell Carter is not playing. Orlando’s backup center, Goga Bitadze, needs helps on the boards and Wagner is the guy to do it. Let’s get back to it.
Bets
Franz Wagner 6+ Rebounds (+135, FanDuel Sportsbook), 0.75U
Franz Wagner 8+ Rebounds (+500, DraftKings Sportsbook) 0.25U
Quick Thoughts on Games I’m Not Betting
Milwaukee Bucks at Charlotte Hornets +7.5, 239.5
Giannis Antetokounmpo is questionable, so it’s hard to do anything with this game until we know whether he’s going to play. This looks like a “Giannis is going to play” line and total to me. If you think he’s out, grab some Hornets or Hornets team total over bets, but I’m happy to pass on this game for now.
Philadelphia 76ers at Atlanta Hawks -1, 236.5
This is another game that we have to wait on due to injury report. Joel Embiid is questionable. If the reigning MVP can’t play, I’m going to likely bet the 76ers team total over, Tobias Harris points over, and maybe some Maxey props. Keep an eye on the FTNBets Discord channel #nba-plays for those later.
Sacramento Kings at San Antonio Spurs +8.5, 238
I wanted to bet the over here, but my numbers actually like the under, so I’ll let it go. It feels like this should be a track meet, especially as an In-Season Tournament game, but it’s a big total and the more I look at it the more it actually looks a little too high.
Denver Nuggets at New Orleans Pelicans +5, 225
Those numbers are within a point or two of my numbers for this game. Denver destroyed the Pelicans a little over a week ago and there’s reason to expect that again, but I’m not backing Denver on the road here. I might bet some Nikola Jokic rebound and assist props, but nothing for now. I’ll put anything in the Discord.
Los Angeles Lakers at Portland Trail Blazers +8.5, 223.5
LeBron James is questionable, and it’s not prudent to act until we know what’s going on with him. Portland shot well against Los Angeles earlier this week, but still lost by six. My projections were close to market on this one as well, so I’m passing.
Phoenix Suns at Utah Jazz +5.5, 237.5
I was primed and ready to fire on a Phoenix Suns team total over even without Bradley Beal, but the stupid efficient market hung a 121.5 and I have the Suns scoring 121. These teams play again Sunday, so let’s see what happens tonight and maybe make a move then.
Houston Rockets at Los Angeles Clippers -7.5, 219.5
This is a bad schedule spot for both teams. Houston is playing their first road game since Oct. 27. Los Angeles was in Denver Tuesday and head to San Antonio for a two-game series after this, making Friday an odd sandwich spot. I do lean Rockets, because we should probably just fade the Clippers every game James Harden plays, but I’m going pass on that.