Week 11 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Christian McCaffrey from EV Insight

Christian McCaffreyRushing Yards

Right now, Christian McCaffrey’s rushing yards prop is set at 59.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 59.5 (-110) after it opened @ 65.5 (-115).

Pros

The 49ers are a big 10-point favorite in this game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 9th-most run-centric team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 41.7% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects Christian McCaffrey to garner 12.9 carries in this week’s game, on average, ranking him in the 77th percentile among RBs.
Christian McCaffrey has averaged 62.0 yards per game on the ground this year, one of the biggest marks in the league among running backs (80th percentile).
The Arizona Cardinals defense owns the worst efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, surrendering 5.01 yards-per-carry.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the least plays run out of all the games this week at 125.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers have called the least plays in football this year, averaging a mere 56.6 plays per game.
The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Christian McCaffrey to be much less involved in his offense’s running game this week (42.2% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (62.0% in games he has played).
The San Francisco 49ers have faced a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, most in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
56
Rushing Yards