Week 11 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Jerick McKinnon from EV Insight

Jerick McKinnonRushing Yards

Right now, Jerick McKinnon’s rushing yards prop is set at 10.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 10.5 (-110) after it opened @ 9.5 (-120).

Pros

The Chiefs are a massive 9.5-point favorite in this game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 136.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Jerick McKinnon has been a more important option in his offense’s run game this season (19.3% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (4.5%).
Jerick McKinnon has run for substantially more yards per game (16.0) this season than he did last season (6.0).
The Los Angeles Chargers defense has had the worst efficiency against opposing running games this year, surrendering 5.82 yards-per-carry.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 3rd-least run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 33.7% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a mere 1.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the NFL). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone for it on 4th down just 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (8th-least in the league), which typically means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
14
Rushing Yards