NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
Jack StollReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Colts vs. Eagles
Right now, Jack Stoll’s receiving yards prop is set at 13.5 yards (+100/-137).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 13.5 (-137) after it opened @ 13.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run among all games this week at 137.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Jack Stoll to be much more involved in his offense’s passing offense this week (9.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (2.9% in games he has played).
- The Philadelphia Eagles offensive line profiles as the 6th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all pass game stats across the board.
- The Indianapolis Colts pass defense has surrendered the 5th-highest Completion% in the league (79%) to TEs this year (79.0%).
Cons
- The Eagles are an enormous 7-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the 9th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 54.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 31.8 pass attempts per game against the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: 4th-least in the NFL.
- Jack Stoll has been among the weakest pass-catching TEs this year, averaging a measly 9.0 yards per game while checking in at the 12th percentile among tight ends.
- Jack Stoll has been among the most unreliable receivers in football among tight ends, completing just 54.7% of passes thrown his way this year, ranking in the 17th percentile.
Projection
THE BLITZ
22
Receiving Yards
22
Receiving Yards
