Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Breece HallRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Bills vs. Jets
Right now, Breece Hall’s rushing yards prop is set at 54.5 yards (-108/-127).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 54.5 (-127) after it opened @ 56.5 (-113).
Pros
- The leading projections forecast Breece Hall to accrue 15.4 carries this week, on average, putting him in the 83rd percentile when it comes to RBs.
- Out of all running backs, Breece Hall grades out in the 88th percentile for carries this year, accounting for 55.7% of the workload in his offense’s run game.
- With a stellar tally of 3.36 yards after contact (95th percentile), Breece Hall ranks among the strongest RBs in the NFL this year.
- This year, the strong Bills run defense has allowed a measly 4.76 adjusted yards-per-carry to opposing offenses: the 27th-lowest rate in the league.
Cons
- The Jets will be forced to utilize backup quarterback Zach Wilson in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
- Our trusted projections expect the Jets offensive scheme to lean 1.1% more towards the passing game than it did last year (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett now calling the plays.
- A throwing game script is implied by the Jets being a -6.5-point underdog this week.
- The predictive model expects the Jets to be the 3rd-least run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 38.6% run rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
- The predictive model expects the Jets to call the 3rd-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.4 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
Projection
THE BLITZ
69
Rushing Yards
69
Rushing Yards
