Week 11 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Aaron Jones from EV Insight

Aaron JonesRushing Yards

Right now, Aaron Jones’s rushing yards prop is set at 55.5 yards (-110/-120).

The public has bet the OVER up to 55.5 (-110) after it opened @ 50.5 (-115).

Pros

The leading projections forecast this game to have the 3rd-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 131.1 plays, given the traits of each team and game dynamics.
In this game, Aaron Jones is predicted by the model to place in the 77th percentile among running backs with 13.6 carries.
Out of all running backs, Aaron Jones ranks in the 80th percentile for rush attempts this year, making up 47.3% of the workload in his team’s running game.
The Green Bay offensive line profiles as the 6th-best in the league last year in run support.
The Chargers defense has had the 9th-worst efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, conceding 4.53 adjusted yards-per-carry.

Cons

This week’s spread implies a throwing game script for the Packers, who are -3-point underdogs.
Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Packers to run on 40.6% of their plays: the 8th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
The Green Bay Packers have called the 7th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 55.1 plays per game.
Aaron Jones’s 39.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year reflects a material reduction in his running proficiency over last year’s 64.0 mark.
Aaron Jones’s rushing effectiveness has declined this year, compiling a mere 3.75 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to a 5.13 mark last year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
59
Rushing Yards