MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 5/15)
Josh Gross
Aaron JonesRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Packers vs. Chargers
Right now, Aaron Jones’s rushing yards prop is set at 55.5 yards (-110/-120).
The public has bet the OVER up to 55.5 (-110) after it opened @ 50.5 (-115).
Pros
- The leading projections forecast this game to have the 3rd-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 131.1 plays, given the traits of each team and game dynamics.
- In this game, Aaron Jones is predicted by the model to place in the 77th percentile among running backs with 13.6 carries.
- Out of all running backs, Aaron Jones ranks in the 80th percentile for rush attempts this year, making up 47.3% of the workload in his team’s running game.
- The Green Bay offensive line profiles as the 6th-best in the league last year in run support.
- The Chargers defense has had the 9th-worst efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, conceding 4.53 adjusted yards-per-carry.
Cons
- This week’s spread implies a throwing game script for the Packers, who are -3-point underdogs.
- Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Packers to run on 40.6% of their plays: the 8th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
- The Green Bay Packers have called the 7th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 55.1 plays per game.
- Aaron Jones’s 39.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year reflects a material reduction in his running proficiency over last year’s 64.0 mark.
- Aaron Jones’s rushing effectiveness has declined this year, compiling a mere 3.75 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to a 5.13 mark last year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
59
Rushing Yards
59
Rushing Yards
