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Week 11 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Zay Flowers from EV Insight

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Zay Flowers

Zay FlowersReceiving Yards

Player Props – Week 11

Ravens vs. Bengals

Right now, Zay Flowers’s receiving yards prop is set at 51.5 yards (+105/-135).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 51.5 (-135) after it opened @ 52.5 (-115).

Pros

  • The Ravens have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to skew 3.6% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
  • The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still weather conditions (3-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while ground volume may go down.
  • In this week’s contest, Zay Flowers is predicted by the projections to land in the 79th percentile among wide receivers with 6.9 targets.
  • With a top-tier 24.4% Target% (88th percentile) this year, Zay Flowers places as one of the WRs with the highest volume in the league.
  • With an excellent 54.0 adjusted yards per game on passes (76th percentile) this year, Zay Flowers rates among the top WRs in the NFL in the NFL.
Cons

  • With a 3.5-point advantage, the Ravens are favored in this week’s contest, suggesting more of a reliance on running than their typical game plan.
  • Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Baltimore Ravens to pass on 51.6% of their opportunities: the 2nd-lowest rate among all teams this week.
  • Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Baltimore Ravens are predicted by the projections to call only 62.8 total plays in this game: the 6th-fewest among all teams this week.
  • This year, the imposing Bengals defense has allowed a meager 60.9% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wide receivers: the 6th-smallest rate in the NFL.

Projection
THE BLITZ
58
Receiving Yards

Previous Week 11 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Aaron Jones from EV Insight Next Week 11 Player Props: Passing Yards for Jordan Love from EV Insight