Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Zay FlowersReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Ravens vs. Bengals
Right now, Zay Flowers’s receiving yards prop is set at 51.5 yards (+105/-135).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 51.5 (-135) after it opened @ 52.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Ravens have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to skew 3.6% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still weather conditions (3-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while ground volume may go down.
- In this week’s contest, Zay Flowers is predicted by the projections to land in the 79th percentile among wide receivers with 6.9 targets.
- With a top-tier 24.4% Target% (88th percentile) this year, Zay Flowers places as one of the WRs with the highest volume in the league.
- With an excellent 54.0 adjusted yards per game on passes (76th percentile) this year, Zay Flowers rates among the top WRs in the NFL in the NFL.
Cons
- With a 3.5-point advantage, the Ravens are favored in this week’s contest, suggesting more of a reliance on running than their typical game plan.
- Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Baltimore Ravens to pass on 51.6% of their opportunities: the 2nd-lowest rate among all teams this week.
- Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Baltimore Ravens are predicted by the projections to call only 62.8 total plays in this game: the 6th-fewest among all teams this week.
- This year, the imposing Bengals defense has allowed a meager 60.9% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wide receivers: the 6th-smallest rate in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
58
Receiving Yards
58
Receiving Yards
