Week 11 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Zay Flowers from EV Insight

Zay FlowersReceiving Yards

Right now, Zay Flowers’s receiving yards prop is set at 51.5 yards (+105/-135).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 51.5 (-135) after it opened @ 52.5 (-115).

Pros

The Ravens have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to skew 3.6% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still weather conditions (3-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while ground volume may go down.
In this week’s contest, Zay Flowers is predicted by the projections to land in the 79th percentile among wide receivers with 6.9 targets.
With a top-tier 24.4% Target% (88th percentile) this year, Zay Flowers places as one of the WRs with the highest volume in the league.
With an excellent 54.0 adjusted yards per game on passes (76th percentile) this year, Zay Flowers rates among the top WRs in the NFL in the NFL.

Cons

With a 3.5-point advantage, the Ravens are favored in this week’s contest, suggesting more of a reliance on running than their typical game plan.
Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Baltimore Ravens to pass on 51.6% of their opportunities: the 2nd-lowest rate among all teams this week.
Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Baltimore Ravens are predicted by the projections to call only 62.8 total plays in this game: the 6th-fewest among all teams this week.
This year, the imposing Bengals defense has allowed a meager 60.9% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wide receivers: the 6th-smallest rate in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
58
Receiving Yards