Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Travis KelceReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Chiefs vs. Eagles
Right now, Travis Kelce’s receiving yards prop is set at 76.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 76.5 (-115) after it opened @ 74.5 (-120).
Pros
- Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Chiefs to pass on 63.6% of their downs: the 2nd-greatest rate among all teams this week.
- Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 4th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 130.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 41.3 pass attempts per game against the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year: 2nd-most in football.
- The leading projections forecast Travis Kelce to accrue 9.3 targets in this week’s game, on balance, placing him in the 99th percentile among TEs.
- Travis Kelce has put up a staggering 62.0 air yards per game this year: 99th percentile when it comes to TEs.
Cons
- The weatherman calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
- Travis Kelce’s 73.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this year indicates a substantial diminishment in his receiving talent over last year’s 80.0 mark.
- As it relates to safeties in covering receivers, Philadelphia’s group of safeties has been one of the most skilled this year, profiling as the 6th-best in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
69
Receiving Yards
69
Receiving Yards
