NBA Prop of the Day
Jake Silverman
Tommy TrembleReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Panthers vs. Cowboys
Right now, Tommy Tremble’s receiving yards prop is set at 15.5 yards (+105/-135).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 15.5 (-135) after it opened @ 15.5 (-120).
Pros
- The Panthers boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Thomas Brown, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to skew 6.6% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- This week’s line suggests an extreme passing game script for the Panthers, who are massive -11.5-point underdogs.
- The leading projections forecast the Panthers as the 5th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 61.0% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
- The predictive model expects the Panthers offense to be the 7th-quickest paced team in football (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 26.70 seconds per snap.
- The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (3-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while ground volume may fall-off.
Cons
- Opposing quarterbacks teams have been afraid to rely on the passing game too much against the Dallas Cowboys, totaling the 2nd-fewest attempts in football (just 28.6 per game) this year.
- After totaling 16.0 air yards per game last year, Tommy Tremble has produced significantly less this year, currently sitting at 6.0 per game.
- When it comes to pass-blocking (and the significance it has on all passing game stats), the offensive line of the Panthers profiles as the 2nd-worst in the NFL this year.
- With a subpar 2.64 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (21st percentile) this year, Tommy Tremble has been among the best tight ends in the pass game in the league in space.
- The Dallas Cowboys linebackers rank as the 4th-best group of LBs in football this year in defending pass-catchers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
19
Receiving Yards
19
Receiving Yards
