Week 11 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Tommy Tremble from EV Insight

Tommy TrembleReceiving Yards

Right now, Tommy Tremble’s receiving yards prop is set at 15.5 yards (+105/-135).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 15.5 (-135) after it opened @ 15.5 (-120).

Pros

The Panthers boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Thomas Brown, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to skew 6.6% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
This week’s line suggests an extreme passing game script for the Panthers, who are massive -11.5-point underdogs.
The leading projections forecast the Panthers as the 5th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 61.0% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
The predictive model expects the Panthers offense to be the 7th-quickest paced team in football (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 26.70 seconds per snap.
The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (3-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while ground volume may fall-off.

Cons

Opposing quarterbacks teams have been afraid to rely on the passing game too much against the Dallas Cowboys, totaling the 2nd-fewest attempts in football (just 28.6 per game) this year.
After totaling 16.0 air yards per game last year, Tommy Tremble has produced significantly less this year, currently sitting at 6.0 per game.
When it comes to pass-blocking (and the significance it has on all passing game stats), the offensive line of the Panthers profiles as the 2nd-worst in the NFL this year.
With a subpar 2.64 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (21st percentile) this year, Tommy Tremble has been among the best tight ends in the pass game in the league in space.
The Dallas Cowboys linebackers rank as the 4th-best group of LBs in football this year in defending pass-catchers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
19
Receiving Yards