Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Terry McLaurinReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Commanders vs. Giants
Right now, Terry McLaurin’s receiving yards prop is set at 59.5 yards (-129/+100).
The public has bet the OVER up to 59.5 (-129) after it opened @ 59.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Washington Commanders feature a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to lean 14.0% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Commanders to pass on 61.0% of their chances: the 5th-greatest rate among all teams this week.
- The leading projections forecast this game to have the 5th-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 130.3 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
- The Washington Commanders have called the 10th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a staggering 60.0 plays per game.
- The leading projections forecast Terry McLaurin to earn 7.8 targets in this week’s game, on balance, ranking him in the 87th percentile among WRs.
Cons
- This week’s spread suggests an extreme running game script for the Commanders, who are a huge favorite by 7.5 points.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 33.7 pass attempts per game vs. the New York Giants defense this year: 8th-fewest in the NFL.
- Terry McLaurin’s pass-catching efficiency has tailed off this season, accumulating a measly 8.09 adjusted yards-per-target vs a 9.90 mark last season.
- Terry McLaurin’s 3.94 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this season represents a significant decline in his efficiency in the open field over last season’s 5.8% rate.
Projection
THE BLITZ
64
Receiving Yards
64
Receiving Yards
