Week 11 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Stefon Diggs from EV Insight

Stefon DiggsReceiving Yards

Right now, Stefon Diggs’s receiving yards prop is set at 76.5 yards (-131/-104).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 76.5 (-104) after it opened @ 77.5 (-119).

Pros

The leading projections forecast the Bills to be the 4th-most pass-oriented offense in the league (context-neutralized) right now with a 68.0% pass rate.
In this contest, Stefon Diggs is projected by the predictive model to slot into the 94th percentile among WRs with 10.0 targets.
After accumulating 104.0 air yards per game last season, Stefon Diggs has posted big gains this season, now sitting at 110.0 per game.
Stefon Diggs’s 73.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive volume) has been substantially higher this year than it was last year at 65.9.
Stefon Diggs grades out as one of the best WRs in the NFL this year, averaging a remarkable 90.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 95th percentile.

Cons

This game’s spread indicates a running game script for the Bills, who are favored by 6.5 points.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is forecasted by the predictive model to have just 125.7 total plays run: the 3rd-fewest among all games this week.
The 8th-smallest volume of plays in football have been run by the Bills this year (a lowly 55.6 per game on average).
Opposing teams teams have been reluctant to rely on the passing game too much against the Jets, totaling the 6th-fewest attempts in the league (a mere 32.9 per game) this year.
The New York Jets defense has given up the fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 98.0) to wideouts this year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
75
Receiving Yards