Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Mike EvansReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 11
49ers vs. Buccaneers
Right now, Mike Evans’s receiving yards prop is set at 59.5 yards (-114/-114).
The public has bet the OVER up to 59.5 (-114) after it opened @ 58.5 (-114).
Pros
- At a -13.5-point disadvantage, the Buccaneers are heavy underdogs in this week’s contest, implying much more of a reliance on passing than their typical game plan.
- Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Buccaneers to pass on 63.0% of their downs: the 3rd-greatest frequency among all teams this week.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 38.7 pass attempts per game against the 49ers defense this year: 9th-most in the league.
- The predictive model expects Mike Evans to accumulate 8.1 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking him in the 89th percentile among WRs.
- With an impressive 70.0 adjusted yards per game on passes (89th percentile) this year, Mike Evans places as one of the top wide receivers in the game in football.
Cons
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to skew 5.0% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- The model projects the Buccaneers to call the fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 60.0 plays, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
- The San Francisco 49ers linebackers project as the 2nd-best group of LBs in football this year in defending pass-catchers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
64
Receiving Yards
64
Receiving Yards
