Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Michael MayerReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Dolphins vs. Raiders
Right now, Michael Mayer’s receiving yards prop is set at 19.5 yards (-114/-114).
The public has bet the OVER up to 19.5 (-114) after it opened @ 17.5 (-114).
Pros
- An extreme passing game script is indicated by the Raiders being a big -14-point underdog in this game.
- In this contest, Michael Mayer is anticipated by the projection model to secure a spot in the 75th percentile among TEs with 3.9 targets.
- The Las Vegas Raiders O-line profiles as the best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive impact on all air attack statistics across the board.
- This year, the poor Miami Dolphins pass defense has given up a whopping 81.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing TEs: the 3rd-highest rate in the league.
Cons
- The model projects the Raiders to be the 2nd-least pass-focused offense in football (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 55.1% pass rate.
- The model projects the Raiders to call the 5th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 62.8 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
- The 3rd-fewest plays in the NFL have been run by the Las Vegas Raiders this year (a lowly 53.6 per game on average).
- When it comes to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Miami’s collection of safeties has been terrific this year, grading out as the 2nd-best in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
27
Receiving Yards
27
Receiving Yards
