NFL

Bets

November 15, 2023

Week 11 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Luke Musgrave from EV Insight

FTN Staff

Luke MusgraveReceiving Yards

Right now, Luke Musgrave’s receiving yards prop is set at 28.5 yards (-114/-114).

The public has bet the OVER up to 28.5 (-114) after it opened @ 26.5 (-114).

Pros

This week’s spread implies a throwing game script for the Packers, who are -3-point underdogs.
The leading projections forecast this game to have the 3rd-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 131.1 plays, given the traits of each team and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Chargers defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, inciting opposing QBs to attempt the 3rd-most passes in football (40.3 per game) this year.
With an exceptional 75.6% Route% (87th percentile) this year, Luke Musgrave has been among the TEs with the highest volume in football.
With an excellent 34.0 adjusted yards per game on passes (75th percentile) this year, Luke Musgrave places as one of the best pass-game tight ends in the NFL.

Cons

The Green Bay Packers have called the 7th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 55.1 plays per game.
This year, the fierce Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has given up the 2nd-least yards-after-the-catch in football to opposing tight ends: a mere 3.4 YAC.

Projection

THE BLITZ
36
Receiving Yards