Week 11 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Logan Thomas from EV Insight

Logan ThomasReceiving Yards

Right now, Logan Thomas’s receiving yards prop is set at 34.5 yards (-120/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 34.5 (-110) after it opened @ 35.5 (-115).

Pros

The Washington Commanders feature a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to lean 14.0% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Commanders to pass on 61.0% of their chances: the 5th-greatest rate among all teams this week.
The leading projections forecast this game to have the 5th-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 130.3 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
The Washington Commanders have called the 10th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a staggering 60.0 plays per game.
Logan Thomas has totaled substantially more adjusted receiving yards per game (39.0) this year than he did last year (25.0).

Cons

This week’s spread suggests an extreme running game script for the Commanders, who are a huge favorite by 7.5 points.
Opposing offenses have averaged 33.7 pass attempts per game vs. the New York Giants defense this year: 8th-fewest in the NFL.
This year, the fierce New York Giants defense has conceded a measly 61.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing tight ends: the smallest rate in the NFL.
The Giants linebackers profile as the 9th-best collection of LBs in the NFL this year in defending pass-catchers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
34
Receiving Yards