Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Keenan AllenReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Packers vs. Chargers
Right now, Keenan Allen’s receiving yards prop is set at 89.5 yards (-107/-122).
The public has bet the OVER up to 89.5 (-107) after it opened @ 85.5 (-115).
Pros
- At the moment, the 5th-most pass-heavy offense in the league (64.8% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Chargers.
- Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Chargers are predicted by the predictive model to call 66.7 plays on offense in this contest: the 2nd-highest number among all teams this week.
- Keenan Allen has run a route on 94.8% of his offense’s dropbacks this year, putting him in the 96th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
- In this contest, Keenan Allen is predicted by the projections to secure a spot in the 100th percentile among wide receivers with 12.0 targets.
- Keenan Allen’s 102.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this year signifies an impressive progression in his pass-catching ability over last year’s 80.0 figure.
Cons
- The projections expect the Chargers offensive gameplan to skew 2.6% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Kellen Moore now calling the plays.
- This game’s line indicates a running game script for the Chargers, who are favored by 3 points.
- Opposing QBs teams have been wary to pass too much against the Packers, averaging the 7th-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 33.1 per game) this year.
- The Green Bay Packers defense has surrendered the 6th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in football (just 134.0) vs. wideouts this year.
- The Green Bay Packers pass defense has excelled when opposing WRs have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 3.32 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 4th-fewest in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
100
Receiving Yards
100
Receiving Yards
