First TD Bets — Wild Card Monday Slate
Alex Christenson
Jack StollReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Chiefs vs. Eagles
Right now, Jack Stoll’s receiving yards prop is set at 9.5 yards (-115/-113).
The public has bet the OVER up to 9.5 (-115) after it opened @ 9.5 (-114).
Pros
- While Jack Stoll has earned 1.1% of his offense’s targets in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be a more important option in Philadelphia’s passing attack in this week’s game at 7.5%.
- The Philadelphia O-line ranks as the 5th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.
- This year, the porous Chiefs defense has surrendered the most yards-after-the-catch in the NFL to opposing TEs: a massive 6.15 YAC.
Cons
- The predictive model expects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 55.7% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
- At the present time, the slowest paced team in football (adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Philadelphia Eagles.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.9 pass attempts per game versus the Chiefs defense this year: fewest in the NFL.
- When talking about air yards, Jack Stoll ranks in just the 24th percentile among TEs this year, with just 2.0 per game.
- Jack Stoll ranks as one of the weakest TEs in the pass game since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 12.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 20th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
Projection
THE BLITZ
13
Receiving Yards
13
Receiving Yards
