Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
The final week of the college football regular season presents some great gambling opportunities if you know what you are looking for.
A lot of the conference title games are set, but there are still some intriguing rivalries as well as teams trying for bowl eligibility. It’s all about finding who has motivation for this weekend and who is just playing out the last contest. With that, let’s take a look at Week 13.
All odds are per DraftKings Sportsbook.
SEC Scenarios
This conference pretty much has all rivalry games this week. Alabama and Georgia are already set for the title game in two weeks, yet each should be focused on beating their rival on the road. South Carolina (+7), Florida (+6.5) and Mississippi State (+11.5) are all sitting at 5-6, while Arkansas and Vanderbilt are the only two teams with nothing to play for.
Big 10 Scenarios
The eyes of the college football world will be on Michigan and Ohio State, as that game will determine who will play Iowa in the conference championship game as well as for a spot in the College Football Playoff. Michigan State, Indiana and Purdue all have nothing to play for in their final contests, while Illinois (-6), Minnesota (+2) and Nebraska (-1.5) all need one more win for bowl eligibility.
ACC Scenarios
The title game is set with Florida State playing Louisville. Pittsburgh, Wake Forest and Virginia have no postseason ahead for them, but the Demon Deacons and Cavaliers can spoil Virginia Tech and Syracuse’s chances. The Hokies (-2.5) and Orange (-2.5) are the only two who need a win this weekend to make a bowl game, but Syracuse fired their head coach.
Big 12 Scenarios
The Big 12 has the most at stake with Texas (-14), Oklahoma State (-17.5), Oklahoma (-11.5) and Kansas State (-11.5) all having a shot to move on to the conference championship. The Sooners play on Friday, but even a win won’t clinch anything because Oklahoma State is in with a win over BYU if Texas gets the job done. They kick off at 3:30 p.m. ET on Saturday, while KSU is at 8 p.m. The Wildcats may know their fate by then, so betting on their game early could be tough to do. TCU (+11.5), BYU (+17.5) and UCF (-13.5) are all going for bowl eligibility, while Houston, Baylor and Cincinnati are all heading to the offseason.
Pac-12 Scenarios
Washington has clinched a spot in the conference title game, while Oregon (-14) gets in with a win. If the Ducks somehow lose their rivalry game against Oregon State, then the door opens for Arizona (-12.5) who plays at Arizona State. Overall, Cal (+10) and Washington State (+16.5) are playing for bowl eligibility, while ASU, Stanford and Colorado are all out of bowl contention.
AAC Scenarios
The AAC title game basically comes down to the winners of the UTSA/Tulane (-3) game and SMU (-20)/Navy. The Roadrunners need to win to get in, while the Green Wave could get in with a loss and a Navy win. The Mustangs just need to win to get in, while their opponent, the Midshipmen, still need one more victory for bowl eligibility. Also in the mix for a bowl with a victory is South Florida (-5) and Rice (-5), with eight other schools just playing for pride, if they have any.
Mountain West Scenarios
UNLV (-3) is in the Mountain West title game with a win over San Jose State on Saturday. The next easiest scenario has Boise State (-6.5) being their opponent with a win over Air Force, who can also make it with a win and some help. The Spartans can potentially get in with an upset win over the Rebels, but that may not be enough as we eventually head to the computers to decide tiebreakers. Utah State (-8.5) and Colorado State (-5.5) need one more win for bowl eligibility, while New Mexico, Hawaii, Nevada and San Diego State are all playing for pride.
Sun Belt Scenarios
Since the NCAA is dumb, the scenario is simple. A Coastal Carolina (+9.5) win over James Madison gives them the East Division bid and a chance to play Troy again for the Sun Belt title. A Chanticleers loss then means Appalachian State (-8.5) can move on with a win over Georgia Southern. Old Dominion (-2.5) is one game out, but they’d lose a tiebreaker to both, so they have no chance. The Monarchs can still get bowl eligible with a win. Also in that boat is Marshall (-2.5) and Louisiana (-12), with just Southern Miss and Louisiana Monroe the only two staying home in the postseason.
MAC Scenarios
The title game has already been determined, with Miami (OH) taking on Toledo. Northern Illinois (-17.5), Central Michigan (+11.5) and Eastern Michigan (+6.5) are one win away from bowl eligibility, while everyone else is out.
Conference USA Scenarios
This conference is pretty easy, as Liberty is playing New Mexico State in the title game. There’s four bowl eligible teams, and that’s it, so there will be a lot of uninspired football being played.
