Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
George KittleReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 11
49ers vs. Buccaneers
Right now, George Kittle’s receiving yards prop is set at 44.5 yards (-115/-115).
Pros
- The Buccaneers defense has been something of pass funnel this year, inciting opposing QBs to attempt the 6th-most passes in football (39.6 per game) this year.
- Our trusted projections expect George Kittle to garner 5.0 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 84th percentile when it comes to TEs.
- George Kittle has accumulated quite a few more air yards this season (54.0 per game) than he did last season (41.0 per game).
- With a RATE1-RATE2 point rise in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive volume) from last season to this one, George Kittle has been more heavily featured in his team’s pass game.
- George Kittle’s 58.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this year reflects a meaningful improvement in his receiving skills over last year’s 49.0 mark.
Cons
- With a 13.5-point advantage, the 49ers are overwhelmingly favored in this week’s game, indicating much more of a reliance on running than their usual game plan.
- Our trusted projections expect the 49ers as the 2nd-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 50.7% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
- Our trusted projections expect this game to see the fewest plays run among all games this week at 122.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The San Francisco 49ers have run the 2nd-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a measly 53.4 plays per game.
- The forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
40
Receiving Yards
40
Receiving Yards
