Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Garrett WilsonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Bills vs. Jets
Right now, Garrett Wilson’s receiving yards prop is set at 67.5 yards (-125/-105).
The public has bet the OVER up to 67.5 (-125) after it opened @ 66.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Jets will be forced to utilize backup quarterback Zach Wilson in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
- Our trusted projections expect the Jets offensive scheme to lean 1.1% more towards the passing game than it did last year (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett now calling the plays.
- A throwing game script is implied by the Jets being a -6.5-point underdog this week.
- The projections expect the New York Jets as the 4th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 61.4% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
- The Bills pass defense has been torched for the highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (76.5%) vs. WRs this year (76.5%).
Cons
- The predictive model expects the Jets to call the 3rd-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.4 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
- The 10th-lowest number of plays in the league have been run by the Jets this year (only 56.0 per game on average).
- The New York Jets offensive line ranks as the 2nd-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a negative influence on all pass attack metrics across the board.
- Garrett Wilson is positioned as one of the least effective pass-catchers in the league, averaging a lowly 7.04 adjusted yards-per-target this year while grading out in the 21st percentile when it comes to wide receivers
- With a lackluster 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (1st percentile) this year, Garrett Wilson places as one of the top pass-catching wide receivers in football in picking up extra yardage.
Projection
THE BLITZ
73
Receiving Yards
73
Receiving Yards
