Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Foster MoreauReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Broncos vs. Raiders
Right now, Foster Moreau’s receiving yards prop is set at 35.5 yards (-105/-125).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 35.5 (-125) after it opened @ 35.5 (-110).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders to be the 9th-most pass-centric offense in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 63.6% pass rate.
- The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game versus the Denver Broncos defense this year: 4th-most in the league.
- Foster Moreau has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this year (79.0% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (47.3%).
- Foster Moreau has notched many more receiving yards per game (36.0) this year than he did last year (28.0).
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders as the 5th-most sluggish paced defense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment, causing opposing offenses to average 28.94 seconds per snap.
- The Denver Broncos pass defense has exhibited good efficiency vs. tight ends this year, giving up 6.84 yards-per-target to the position: the 10th-least in football.
- The Denver Broncos safeties grade out as the best safety corps in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
- The Denver Broncos have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 9.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in football. Choosing not to bring an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
- The Las Vegas Raiders have incorporated play action on a lowly 16.4% of their passing plays since the start of last season (least in the NFL), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.
Projection
THE BLITZ
42
Receiving Yards
42
Receiving Yards
