NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
Miles SandersRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Colts vs. Eagles
Right now, Miles Sanders’s rushing yards prop is set at 59.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 59.5 (-110) after it opened @ 63.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Eagles are an enormous 7-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the 10th-most run-centric offense in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 40.2% run rate.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run among all games this week at 137.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Miles Sanders to earn 17.4 rush attempts in this contest, on average, ranking in the 93rd percentile among RBs.
- Miles Sanders has run for significantly more yards per game (79.0) this year than he did last year (57.0).
Cons
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
- The Indianapolis Colts defense has had the 4th-best efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, surrendering just 4.11 yards-per-carry.
- The Indianapolis Colts defensive tackles profile as the 2nd-best DT corps in the league this year when it comes to run defense.
- The Philadelphia Eagles have been faced with a stacked the box on 18.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
- The Philadelphia Eagles have utilized motion in their offense on 28.1% of their play-calls since the start of last season (4th-least in the league), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.
Projection
THE BLITZ
77
Rushing Yards
77
Rushing Yards
