Week 11 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Miles Sanders from EV Insight

Miles SandersRushing Yards

Right now, Miles Sanders’s rushing yards prop is set at 59.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 59.5 (-110) after it opened @ 63.5 (-115).

Pros

The Eagles are an enormous 7-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the 10th-most run-centric offense in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 40.2% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run among all games this week at 137.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Miles Sanders to earn 17.4 rush attempts in this contest, on average, ranking in the 93rd percentile among RBs.
Miles Sanders has run for significantly more yards per game (79.0) this year than he did last year (57.0).

Cons

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
The Indianapolis Colts defense has had the 4th-best efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, surrendering just 4.11 yards-per-carry.
The Indianapolis Colts defensive tackles profile as the 2nd-best DT corps in the league this year when it comes to run defense.
The Philadelphia Eagles have been faced with a stacked the box on 18.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Philadelphia Eagles have utilized motion in their offense on 28.1% of their play-calls since the start of last season (4th-least in the league), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.

Projection

THE BLITZ
77
Rushing Yards