Week 11 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Diontae Johnson from EV Insight

Diontae JohnsonReceiving Yards

Right now, Diontae Johnson’s receiving yards prop is set at 45.5 yards (-129/-106).

The public has bet the OVER up to 45.5 (-129) after it opened @ 43.5 (-117).

Pros

Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Pittsburgh Steelers are forecasted by the predictive model to run 66.1 total plays in this contest: the 4th-highest number on the slate this week.
In this contest, Diontae Johnson is expected by our trusted projection set to finish in the 89th percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 8.1 targets.
Diontae Johnson has accumulated a staggering 92.0 air yards per game this year: 88th percentile among wide receivers.
Diontae Johnson has compiled significantly more adjusted receiving yards per game (67.0) this year than he did last year (56.0).
Diontae Johnson’s receiving efficiency has gotten a boost this year, compiling 8.60 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a measly 6.70 mark last year.

Cons

The 5th-fewest plays in the NFL have been run by the Pittsburgh Steelers this year (a lowly 54.9 per game on average).
Opposing offenses have averaged 26.8 pass attempts per game against the Browns defense this year: fewest in football.
Diontae Johnson has been used less as a potential target this year (81.5% Route Participation% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (96.2%).
The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line ranks as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.
This year, the imposing Cleveland Browns defense has surrendered a measly 116.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing WRs: the 3rd-best in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
52
Receiving Yards