Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Diontae JohnsonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Browns vs. Steelers
Right now, Diontae Johnson’s receiving yards prop is set at 45.5 yards (-129/-106).
The public has bet the OVER up to 45.5 (-129) after it opened @ 43.5 (-117).
Pros
- Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Pittsburgh Steelers are forecasted by the predictive model to run 66.1 total plays in this contest: the 4th-highest number on the slate this week.
- In this contest, Diontae Johnson is expected by our trusted projection set to finish in the 89th percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 8.1 targets.
- Diontae Johnson has accumulated a staggering 92.0 air yards per game this year: 88th percentile among wide receivers.
- Diontae Johnson has compiled significantly more adjusted receiving yards per game (67.0) this year than he did last year (56.0).
- Diontae Johnson’s receiving efficiency has gotten a boost this year, compiling 8.60 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a measly 6.70 mark last year.
Cons
- The 5th-fewest plays in the NFL have been run by the Pittsburgh Steelers this year (a lowly 54.9 per game on average).
- Opposing offenses have averaged 26.8 pass attempts per game against the Browns defense this year: fewest in football.
- Diontae Johnson has been used less as a potential target this year (81.5% Route Participation% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (96.2%).
- The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line ranks as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.
- This year, the imposing Cleveland Browns defense has surrendered a measly 116.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing WRs: the 3rd-best in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
52
Receiving Yards
52
Receiving Yards
