Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Daniel BellingerReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Commanders vs. Giants
Right now, Daniel Bellinger’s receiving yards prop is set at 15.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 15.5 (-115) after it opened @ 15.5 (-105).
Pros
- At a -7.5-point disadvantage, the Giants are giant underdogs in this game, indicating much more of a reliance on passing than their normal approach.
- The leading projections forecast the New York Giants to run the 5th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 65.9 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.
- The Giants have run the 8th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 60.7 plays per game.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 40.1 pass attempts per game against the Commanders defense this year: 4th-most in the NFL.
- This week, Daniel Bellinger is predicted by our trusted projection set to land in the 76th percentile when it comes to TEs with 4.0 targets.
Cons
- The model projects the New York Giants as the 5th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 52.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
- After averaging 12.0 air yards per game last year, Daniel Bellinger has seen a big decrease this year, now boasting 4.0 per game.
- In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the impact it has on all passing game stats), the O-line of the New York Giants profiles as the worst in the league this year.
- Daniel Bellinger has accumulated many fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (13.0) this year than he did last year (27.0).
- Daniel Bellinger’s 80.4% Adjusted Catch Rate this year illustrates a substantial diminishment in his pass-catching prowess over last year’s 91.2% mark.
Projection
THE BLITZ
25
Receiving Yards
25
Receiving Yards
