Week 11 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Dalton Kincaid from EV Insight

Dalton KincaidReceiving Yards

Right now, Dalton Kincaid’s receiving yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (-120/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 49.5 (-110) after it opened @ 50.5 (-115).

Pros

The leading projections forecast the Bills to be the 4th-most pass-oriented offense in the league (context-neutralized) right now with a 68.0% pass rate.
In this game, Dalton Kincaid is forecasted by our trusted projection set to place in the 96th percentile when it comes to TEs with 7.5 targets.
While Dalton Kincaid has garnered 16.8% of his team’s targets in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be a much bigger part of Buffalo’s pass game this week at 22.5%.
When talking about air yards, Dalton Kincaid ranks in the lofty 75th percentile among tight ends this year, accumulating a massive 26.0 per game.
Dalton Kincaid comes in as one of the best pass-catching tight ends this year, averaging a terrific 43.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 85th percentile.

Cons

This game’s spread indicates a running game script for the Bills, who are favored by 6.5 points.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is forecasted by the predictive model to have just 125.7 total plays run: the 3rd-fewest among all games this week.
The 8th-smallest volume of plays in football have been run by the Bills this year (a lowly 55.6 per game on average).
Opposing teams teams have been reluctant to rely on the passing game too much against the Jets, totaling the 6th-fewest attempts in the league (a mere 32.9 per game) this year.
The New York Jets pass defense has given up the 5th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (67%) versus TEs this year (67.0%).

Projection

THE BLITZ
47
Receiving Yards