Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Brandon AiyukReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 11
49ers vs. Buccaneers
Right now, Brandon Aiyuk’s receiving yards prop is set at 67.5 yards (-130/+100).
The public has bet the OVER up to 67.5 (-130) after it opened @ 66.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Buccaneers defense has been something of pass funnel this year, inciting opposing QBs to attempt the 6th-most passes in football (39.6 per game) this year.
- In this contest, Brandon Aiyuk is projected by our trusted projection set to slot into the 83rd percentile when it comes to wideouts with 7.3 targets.
- Brandon Aiyuk has compiled far more air yards this season (100.0 per game) than he did last season (69.0 per game).
- With a RATE1-RATE2 point jump in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive usage) from last year to this one, Brandon Aiyuk has been more heavily used in his team’s air attack.
- Brandon Aiyuk’s 84.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this year indicates a remarkable progression in his pass-catching prowess over last year’s 63.0 mark.
Cons
- With a 13.5-point advantage, the 49ers are overwhelmingly favored in this week’s game, indicating much more of a reliance on running than their usual game plan.
- Our trusted projections expect the 49ers as the 2nd-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 50.7% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
- Our trusted projections expect this game to see the fewest plays run among all games this week at 122.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The San Francisco 49ers have run the 2nd-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a measly 53.4 plays per game.
- The forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
68
Receiving Yards
68
Receiving Yards
