Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Amon-Ra St. BrownReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Giants vs. Lions
Right now, Amon-Ra St. Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 75.5 yards (-120/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 75.5 (-120) after it opened @ 75.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Lions are a 3-point underdog in this week’s contest, indicating a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 130.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Amon-Ra St. Brown to garner 9.7 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 96th percentile among WRs.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown has been a more integral piece of his offense’s pass game this season (33.7% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (22.1%).
- Amon-Ra St. Brown has compiled far more air yards this season (73.0 per game) than he did last season (50.0 per game).
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions to be the 8th-least pass-oriented offense in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 58.1% pass rate.
- The forecast calls for 20-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
- Opposing teams have averaged 34.1 pass attempts per game versus the New York Giants defense this year: 9th-least in the league.
- The Detroit Lions O-line ranks as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all passing game stats across the board.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown’s receiving reliability have diminished this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 78.6% to 70.9%.
Projection
THE BLITZ
68
Receiving Yards
68
Receiving Yards
