Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Amari CooperReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Browns vs. Steelers
Right now, Amari Cooper’s receiving yards prop is set at 42.5 yards (-110/-120).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 42.5 (-120) after it opened @ 42.5 (-115).
Pros
- The projections expect this game to have the largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 132.9 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
- The largest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the Cleveland Browns this year (a colossal 66.7 per game on average).
- The predictive model expects Amari Cooper to earn 7.2 targets in this week’s contest, on balance, placing him in the 81st percentile among wideouts.
- Amari Cooper has compiled far more air yards this season (113.0 per game) than he did last season (96.0 per game).
- The Pittsburgh Steelers defense has yielded the 5th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (188.0) to WRs this year.
Cons
- The model projects the Cleveland Browns to be the least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 49.3% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
- Amari Cooper’s 60.6% Adjusted Catch Rate this year illustrates a material decrease in his receiving prowess over last year’s 64.9% rate.
- The Steelers pass defense has surrendered the 8th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (62.8%) vs. WRs this year (62.8%).
- When it comes to linebackers in covering receivers, Pittsburgh’s unit has been phenomenal this year, grading out as the 3rd-best in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
51
Receiving Yards
51
Receiving Yards
