Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
A.J. BrownReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Chiefs vs. Eagles
Right now, A.J. Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 82.5 yards (-129/-106).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 82.5 (-106) after it opened @ 83.5 (-115).
Pros
- This week, A.J. Brown is projected by the projection model to find himself in the 97th percentile when it comes to WRs with 10.6 targets.
- A.J. Brown has posted significantly more air yards this year (132.0 per game) than he did last year (104.0 per game).
- With a RATE1-RATE2 point uptick in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive usage) from last season to this one, A.J. Brown has been more heavily featured in his offense’s pass attack.
- The Philadelphia O-line ranks as the 5th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.
- A.J. Brown’s 108.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this year signifies a noteable growth in his receiving talent over last year’s 80.0 mark.
Cons
- The predictive model expects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 55.7% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
- At the present time, the slowest paced team in football (adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Philadelphia Eagles.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.9 pass attempts per game versus the Chiefs defense this year: fewest in the NFL.
- This year, the fierce Kansas City Chiefs defense has yielded a puny 59.1% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wideouts: the 4th-best rate in football.
- This year, the imposing Kansas City Chiefs defense has surrendered the 3rd-least adjusted yards-per-target in the league to opposing wide receivers: a mere 7.1 yards.
Projection
THE BLITZ
91
Receiving Yards
91
Receiving Yards
