Week 11 Player Props: Passing Yards for Zach Wilson from EV Insight

Zach WilsonPassing Yards

Right now, Zach Wilson’s passing yards prop is set at 205.5 yards (-129/-106).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 205.5 (-106) after it opened @ 206.5 (-117).

Pros

The Jets will be forced to utilize backup quarterback Zach Wilson in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
Our trusted projections expect the Jets offensive scheme to lean 1.1% more towards the passing game than it did last year (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett now calling the plays.
A throwing game script is implied by the Jets being a -6.5-point underdog this week.
The projections expect the New York Jets as the 4th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 61.4% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the highest rate in football versus the Buffalo Bills defense this year (78.4% Adjusted Completion%).

Cons

The predictive model expects the Jets to call the 3rd-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.4 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The 10th-lowest number of plays in the league have been run by the Jets this year (only 56.0 per game on average).
The New York Jets offensive line ranks as the 2nd-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a negative influence on all pass attack metrics across the board.
Zach Wilson ranks as one of the least effective quarterbacks in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 6.05 adjusted yards-per-target while ranking in the lowly 12th percentile.
This year, the stout Buffalo Bills defense has surrendered the 5th-least yards-after-the-catch in football to opposing squads: a feeble 4.4 YAC.

Projection

THE BLITZ
215
Passing Yards