Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Zach WilsonPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Bills vs. Jets
Right now, Zach Wilson’s passing yards prop is set at 205.5 yards (-129/-106).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 205.5 (-106) after it opened @ 206.5 (-117).
Pros
- The Jets will be forced to utilize backup quarterback Zach Wilson in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
- Our trusted projections expect the Jets offensive scheme to lean 1.1% more towards the passing game than it did last year (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett now calling the plays.
- A throwing game script is implied by the Jets being a -6.5-point underdog this week.
- The projections expect the New York Jets as the 4th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 61.4% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
- Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the highest rate in football versus the Buffalo Bills defense this year (78.4% Adjusted Completion%).
Cons
- The predictive model expects the Jets to call the 3rd-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.4 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
- The 10th-lowest number of plays in the league have been run by the Jets this year (only 56.0 per game on average).
- The New York Jets offensive line ranks as the 2nd-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a negative influence on all pass attack metrics across the board.
- Zach Wilson ranks as one of the least effective quarterbacks in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 6.05 adjusted yards-per-target while ranking in the lowly 12th percentile.
- This year, the stout Buffalo Bills defense has surrendered the 5th-least yards-after-the-catch in football to opposing squads: a feeble 4.4 YAC.
Projection
THE BLITZ
215
Passing Yards
215
Passing Yards
